Eight days after Nepal’s Election Commission recognized a breakaway faction from his party, Deputy Prime Minister Upendra Yadav walked out of the government. The Upendra Yadav resignation landed on Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda’s desk on Monday morning, and with it, his Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal (JSP-Nepal) formally exited the ruling coalition. It’s a sharp political turn, but not a fatal one for the government, which still commands a working majority.
Yadav also gave up his Health and Population portfolio. Minister of State for Forest and Environment Deepak Karki, another JSP-Nepal leader, resigned as well. The message was clear: this wasn’t a personal move; it was his party pulling the plug on its role in the coalition.
In a brief note, Yadav thanked Prachanda for the opportunity to serve but said the changed context left him no room to continue. His party had just been hit by a major split. Senior leader Ashok Rai broke away with six lawmakers and 30 central committee members to form a new party. The Election Commission accepted Rai’s application on May 6, a day after it was filed. That decision turned internal strife into a formal divorce.
The arithmetic in parliament shifted. JSP-Nepal, which held 12 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives, shrank to five. Rai’s group took seven. For a party built on representing the Madhes and negotiating hard inside coalitions, that was a heavy blow—and a big reason Yadav chose the door.
Does this topple the government? Not right now. The coalition still has the numbers. But it does change who gets heard in the room, which ministries get reshuffled, and how the next budget is shaped.
What changed inside JSP-Nepal
JSP-Nepal has lived with factional tension for years. It grew out of merger politics and identity-driven movements that reshaped Nepal after the 2006 peace process. Over time, pressure points emerged: leadership authority, candidate selection, and how hard to push on Madhes-focused demands while trying to govern in Kathmandu.
That pressure finally broke through this month. Ashok Rai’s camp moved fast, taking a slice of the parliamentary party and a significant chunk of the central committee. The Election Commission’s quick recognition gave Rai’s faction legal standing and a new nameplate, leaving Yadav’s side weaker in parliament and inside the organization.
For Yadav, staying in the cabinet with a reduced base risked looking like he was clinging to office while losing the party. Exiting resets the narrative. Outside the government, he can try to rebuild his bloc, re-energize local networks in the Madhes, and present himself as a principled actor rather than a trade partner outbid by rivals.
Rai, for his part, now controls a smaller but recognized outfit with leverage inside the current ruling lineup. His lawmakers matter in close votes and in committee bargaining. That instantly makes him relevant to the coalition managers around Prachanda and the CPN-UML.
This is classic Nepal coalition politics: parties split, rebrand, and reposition not only for today’s cabinet posts but for the long grind to the next general election. The timeline matters here. The budget season is weeks away. Provincial and local dynamics in the Madhes will play into how both Yadav and Rai deploy their ground teams. Each will try to show he can deliver votes and stability where it counts.
Inside JSP-Nepal’s voter base, the split will spark hard questions. Does being outside the government help push long-standing demands—on inclusion, representation, and service delivery—or does it sideline a Madhes voice from national decisions? Yadav is betting that independence now is worth the lost ministries.
What it means for the coalition and for Madhes politics
The Dahal government lives to fight another day. After the shake-up, the bloc’s rough tally looks like this:
- CPN-UML: 77
- Maoist Centre: 32
- Rastriya Swatantra Party: 21
- Janata Samajbadi Party (Rai faction): 7
- CPN-Unified Socialist: 10
That clears the 138-seat majority threshold in a 275-seat House. The loss of JSP-Nepal stings politically, but it doesn’t trigger a crisis vote on its own. Still, the coalition’s center of gravity tilts further toward UML, with the Maoist Centre managing a complex partner mix and the Rastriya Swatantra Party watching for openings.
Expect a cabinet reshuffle. Yadav’s exit leaves the Health and Population Ministry open. That portfolio matters right now. Nepal is trying to improve drug procurement, fix gaps in public hospitals, and steady health insurance coverage. Continuity is key—especially before the budget arrives. The Prime Minister will want a safe pair of hands there, likely someone who is acceptable to UML and the RSP and won’t spark a turf war.
Budget timing adds pressure. Nepal’s fiscal calendar forces the government to move fast on the appropriation bill and related legislation. Each partner will bargain for project allocations and signature programs in the budget speech. That’s normal. What’s new is the added leverage of Rai’s group and the absence of Yadav’s voice inside the room.
This also hits representation from the Madhes at the federal table. Yadav’s camp often framed itself as a bridge between Kathmandu and the southern plains on issues like inclusion, state restructuring, citizenship processes, and local development. With his party out, the Madhes voice inside the cabinet shifts to leaders who sit with other parties or with the new Rai-led group. That changes the tone of negotiations on identity questions and local budgets.
Prachanda’s political challenge is twofold. First, keep the numbers steady through the budget and any confidence votes that follow. Second, balance the ambitions of UML, RSP, and Rai’s outfit without making the Maoist Centre look like a junior passenger in its own government. That’s a difficult act, and it gets tougher with every reshuffle and defection.
There’s a wider pattern here. Since taking office in late 2022, Prachanda has switched coalition partners more than once. The most recent realignment brought UML and the RSP into the tent, dislodging the earlier arrangement with the Nepali Congress. Frequent rearrangements keep governments alive, but they slow policymaking and spook investors watching for consistency on infrastructure, energy, and taxation.
Inside parliament, committee work will matter almost as much as floor votes. Health, finance, and law committees will test how cohesive the new alignment is. Watch who chairs what, and whether smaller partners start trading support for strategic committee posts rather than only cabinet seats.
On the Madhes front, Yadav’s strategy now looks like rebuild-first, negotiate-later. He will try to keep his five-seat bloc intact, prevent further defections, and win over local organizers who might be tempted by the resources that come with being in government. Expect him to focus on a few tangible issues—roads, hospitals, service delivery in district headquarters—and use them to argue that independence can deliver results.
Rai’s faction has a mirror challenge. It must show that joining hands with the current ruling camp yields concrete gains for its voters. That means pushing for program funding in their constituencies and visible progress on everyday concerns—drug supply in local health posts, irrigation fixes, job programs, and access to documents. If they can point to wins, they gain staying power beyond this session.
Could this trigger an early general election? Not likely in the immediate term. The governing side can still win a confidence vote. But the price of survival is always negotiation. If any partner overplays its hand around the budget or local appointments, the math could flip again. Nepal’s mixed electoral system and a fragmented party map encourage constant recalibration.
What happens next is straightforward, even if the politics aren’t.
- The Prime Minister will accept the resignations and name interim or new ministers, including at Health and Population.
- The ruling parties will finalize a budget deal and decide which flagship programs to protect.
- Rai’s faction will seek visible gains to justify its move and solidify its seven seats.
- Yadav will tour his base, rally his organization, and pitch discipline after the split.
- Opposition parties will probe for weak spots in floor management and in committees.
For now, the numbers hold. But the message is unmistakable: coalition politics in Kathmandu is fragile, and leaders from the Madhes remain central to how that fragility plays out. Upendra Yadav chose to leave rather than be squeezed inside a smaller tent. Whether that bet pays off will be judged soon—when the budget is tabled and when the government starts counting heads again.